Fuel Network (FUEL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Sequencer Decentralization (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Fuel plans to decentralize its sequencer network using Tendermint-based PoS, requiring FUEL staking for block validation. Phase 2 (scaling proposers) is slated for late 2025, aligning with the migration of 997M V2 tokens by August 19.

What this means:
Increased staking reduces circulating supply – a bullish driver if adoption meets targets. However, with only 12 initial proposers (Fuel Docs), network effects depend on developer traction post-migration.

2. Liquidity & Vesting Reforms (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
A proposal seeks to:
- Immediately vest 3.31B tokens (removing 24-month linear unlocks)
- Deploy $4.7M as a $0.01 price floor via Cowswap
- Add liquidity pools on Uniswap/Mira

What this means:
While the buy wall could stem declines, 470M FUEL (~8% of circulating supply) might flood markets if the floor breaks. Long-term, reduced vesting uncertainty may attract institutional interest, but near-term volatility is likely.

3. L2 Race & Tech Upgrades (Bullish/Bearish Catalyst)

Overview:
Fuel’s July 2025 EigenDA migration boosted theoretical TPS from 600 to 5K, aiming for 150K by 2026. Competitors like Arbitrum and zkSync dominate developer mindshare, but Fuel’s parallel execution and fee-less UX (LayerSwap integration) offer differentiation.

What this means:
Price could re-rate if Fuel captures >5% of Ethereum’s rollup activity (currently <1%). However, the token’s -48% 90d drop reflects skepticism about L2 saturation.

Conclusion

FUEL’s trajectory hinges on balancing supply shocks (vesting unlocks) with demand drivers (staking, L2 adoption). The $0.01 support level and sequencer decentralization progress are critical watchpoints – a break below could trigger panic selling, while successful Phase 2 deployment might validate its “ultra-scalable L2” thesis.

Will EigenDA’s throughput gains translate into measurable developer migration by Q4 2025?