Morpho (MORPHO) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Strategic Partner Unlocks (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
27.5% of MORPHO’s supply is allocated to strategic partners, with Cohort 2 (16.8%) fully vesting by October 2025 and Cohort 3 (6.7%) by May 2028. These entities acquired tokens at steep discounts during Morpho’s early growth phase.

What this means:
Near-term unlocks (notably Cohort 2’s $113M+ worth at current prices) could trigger profit-taking, especially if partners rotate into blue-chip assets during market uncertainty. However, extended vesting for later cohorts may mitigate dilution through 2026.

2. Morpho V2 & RWA Expansion (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview:
The June 2025 V2 upgrade introduced fixed-rate loans and cross-chain settlements, attracting institutions like Coinbase (managing $1B+ in crypto-collateralized loans via Morpho). Partnerships with Pharos Network aim to tokenize $25B+ in real-world assets.

What this means:
Institutional adoption could stabilize demand – Morpho’s TVL surged 560% YTD to ~$9B, with Base chain deposits nearing $2B (The Defiant). Fee revenue growth (Q2 2025: $3.98M/week vs. $1.48M in May) suggests sustainable protocol income.

3. Market Rotation & Liquidity

Overview:
MORPHO benefits from the Altcoin Season Index rising 117% monthly (63 current score) as capital flows from Bitcoin to DeFi. However, derivatives open interest surged 30% monthly to $986B, increasing volatility risks.

What this means:
Positive correlation with ETH (r²=0.89) makes MORPHO sensitive to Ethereum’s performance. A break above the 23.6% Fib level ($2.59) could target $3.50, but RSI-14 at 47 shows neutral momentum needing confirmation.

Conclusion

Morpho’s price hinges on balancing partner sell pressure against institutional adoption of its V2 infrastructure. The $2.00 level aligns with the 78.6% Fib support – a hold here amid altseason tailwinds could validate bullish setups.

Will Cohort 2 partners hold through Q4 2025, or will profit-taking cap upside? Monitor exchange inflows and Grayscale’s MORPHO position changes (added to Top 20 in June) for clues.