NEAR Protocol (NEAR) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Inflation Reduction Proposal (Bullish Impact)

Overview: A community proposal aims to slash NEAR’s annual inflation from 5% to 2.5%, requiring a 66.67% validator vote. If passed, the change could go live by late Q3 2025. Backers like Dragonfly and Electric Capital argue this would reduce sell pressure from staking rewards and accelerate NEAR’s path to net deflation.

What this means: Lower inflation = fewer new tokens entering circulation. Historically, supply shocks (e.g., Bitcoin halvings) correlate with price rallies if demand holds. Staking rewards would drop to ~4-4.5%, but MetaPool’s incentive programs could offset this via boosted yields.

2. AI & Chain Abstraction Adoption (Mixed Impact)

Overview: NEAR Intents processed $570M+ volume in July 2025, with integrations like Aptos and Shelby’s decentralized storage. Shade Agents (AI-powered bots executing cross-chain trades) and Bitwise’s staking ETP signal institutional traction.

What this means: Success hinges on user adoption. While partnerships (e.g., IQ AI, Everclear) expand utility, NEAR must prove its “AI execution layer” narrative against rivals like FET. Short-term, hype could lift prices; long-term, failure to scale usage risks dilution.

3. Technical Setup (Neutral/Bullish)

Overview: NEAR trades at $2.61, above its 7-day SMA ($2.45) but below the 200-day EMA ($2.93). MACD shows a bullish crossover, and RSI (63.59) leaves room for upside. Fibonacci retracement suggests resistance at $2.88 (23.6% level).

What this means: A break above $2.93 could trigger momentum buying toward $3.27 (127.2% extension). However, low turnover (4.67% of market cap) implies thin liquidity – sharp drops may occur if Bitcoin weakens.

Conclusion

NEAR’s price will likely hinge on the inflation vote outcome and AI product traction. Validator approval of reduced issuance could spark a 2025 Q4 rally, while delays or tepid Intents adoption might cap gains. Watch the $2.93 resistance – a sustained break could confirm bullish momentum.

Will NEAR’s validator vote catalyze the supply shock it needs?