Latest POL (prev. MATIC) (POL) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Liquidity Outflows (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
POL saw $263K in spot selling and $9.88M in derivatives liquidations over 24h (AMBCrypto). Net outflows totaled $368K across bridges and exchanges, signaling profit-taking.

What this means:
Consistent selling across spot and derivatives markets increases downward momentum. The 24h turnover ratio of 6.86% suggests thin liquidity, amplifying price swings.

What to look out for:
Stablecoin inflows to Polygon PoS (currently $1.29B USDT) as a bullish reversal signal.

2. Declining Network Activity (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Weekly active addresses fell to 2.2M (-18% from August highs), while new users dropped to 99K (Polygon News).

What this means:
Lower usage reduces POL’s utility demand. However, Polygon’s TVL remains strong at $1.23B (up 43% YTD), led by protocols like QuickSwap and Polymarket.

What to look out for:
AggLayer v0.3 launch (scheduled Q3 2025) to boost cross-chain activity.

3. Technical Retest of Support (Neutral/Bearish)

Overview:
POL is testing the $0.231–$0.226 zone for the fourth time since August. The 200-day SMA sits at $0.225, while RSI (57) shows neutral momentum.

What this means:
Repeated tests erode buyer confidence. A breakdown below $0.226 could trigger stops toward $0.20, but holding above this level may signal accumulation.

What to look out for:
MACD histogram turning positive (currently +0.00074178) for bullish confirmation.

Conclusion

POL’s dip reflects short-term liquidity pressures and fading speculative interest post-MATIC→POL migration (97.8% complete). However, its strong institutional adoption (Starbucks, Disney Metaverse integrations) and AggLayer development provide long-term upside potential.

Key watch: Can POL hold $0.226 support amid rising altcoin season index (+33% in 30 days)?

Deep Dive

1. DeFi Activity & TVL Growth (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Polygon’s Total Value Locked (TVL) surged to $1.23B in August 2025, a 43% YTD increase, driven by DeFi platforms like QuickSwap and Polymarket. Stablecoin payments on the network hit $2.56B in July, with USDC active addresses surpassing 3.16M (CoinJournal).

What this means: Higher TVL signals increased utility and capital inflows, creating buy-side pressure for POL. Institutions like Starbucks and Disney Metaverse have adopted Polygon for loyalty programs, further validating its infrastructure.

What to look out for: Sustained TVL growth post-September 2025 and adoption of AggLayer v0.2.

2. MATIC-to-POL Transition Progress (Mixed Impact)

Overview: 97.83% of MATIC holders have migrated to POL as of August 2025, per Polygon’s X post. The upgrade introduces enhanced staking rewards and cross-chain interoperability.

What this means: Reduced MATIC sell pressure and increased POL utility (staking, governance) are bullish. However, short-term volatility persists due to exchange suspensions (e.g., ProBit Global halted deposits/withdrawals in July 2025).

3. Technical Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview: POL trades at $0.277, above its 30-day SMA ($0.2536) and 200-day EMA ($0.2607). The RSI-14 at 58.85 suggests room for upward movement without overbought risk (Technical Analysis).

What this means: Bullish momentum is supported by a rising MACD histogram (+0.00146) and a retest of Fibonacci support at $0.2264–$0.2318. Traders are targeting $0.28–$0.30 if resistance breaks.

Conclusion

POL’s uptick reflects a blend of organic DeFi growth, migration progress, and technical strength. While liquidity outflows ($263K sold in 24h) pose risks, network upgrades and institutional adoption provide a bullish foundation.

Key watch: Can POL hold above its 200-day EMA ($0.2607) to confirm a longer-term trend reversal?