TerraClassicUSD (USTC) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Terra Classic v3.5.0 Upgrade (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
The August 2025 network upgrade aims to reactivate the Market Module, a core mechanism for USTC-LUNC arbitrage. Binance’s institutional backing and historical precedent (320% surge post-Feb 2025 upgrade) suggest potential upside.

What this means:
A functional Market Module could restore on-chain utility, attracting traders seeking arbitrage opportunities. However, failure to execute could trigger selloffs given USTC’s 90-day +10% volatility.

2. Legal & Regulatory Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Do Kwon’s guilty plea (Aug 2025) for $40B fraud amplifies regulatory risks, with possible fines and stricter oversight. Concurrently, MiCA compliance has already forced USTC’s delisting from EU exchanges since March 2025, shrinking its addressable market.

What this means:
Regulatory headwinds could suppress institutional interest, while EU restrictions erased ~18% of USTC’s liquidity (pre-delisting EEA volume). Sentiment remains fragile, with RSI (51) reflecting neutral-but-volatile conditions.

3. Supply-Demand Mechanics (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The community burned 5.18B USTC since 2022 (9.3% of peak supply), but Binance lacks burn support. Meanwhile, staking proposals and a $0.1 re-peg roadmap could incentivize holding.

What this means:
Reduced supply (6.09B circulating) against stagnant demand creates asymmetric upside potential. However, technicals show resistance at $0.0145 (Fibonacci 23.6%), requiring sustained buy pressure to break.

Conclusion

USTC’s trajectory balances bullish protocol upgrades against bearish regulatory realities. Short-term volatility near $0.014 is likely, with the Aug 2025 upgrade serving as a make-or-break catalyst. Will validator participation in governance votes exceed 60% – a key threshold for upgrade success?