Deep Dive
1. Telegram Ecosystem Growth (Bullish Impact)
Overview:
Major’s value hinges on Telegram’s 800M+ user base adopting its NFT rentals, Premium subscriptions via $MAJOR, and the upcoming Portals gift marketplace. Recent TON-based NFT projects (@DurovCapsBot) saw floor prices surge 200x, suggesting demand for Telegram-native assets.
What this means:
Successful integration of Portals (Q4 2025 target) could drive $MAJOR utility beyond speculation. However, competition from Telegram’s expanding Web3 ecosystem risks dilution unless Major maintains first-mover advantages.
2. Token Allocation Risks (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
842.26M $MAJOR (8.4% of supply) moved to marketing/airdrop wallets in July 2025 (GoPlus tweet). With only 20.9% of 30-day volume ($2.06M) needed to absorb this supply, unlocks could pressure prices.
What this means:
Near-term sell pressure from airdrops may offset bullish developments. Watch the circulating supply (83.3M currently) – a 10%+ increase without matching demand could extend MAJOR’s -32% 90D trend.
3. Market Sentiment & Liquidity (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
MAJOR’s 0.156 turnover ratio (volume/market cap) signals illiquid markets – prices can swing 5-10% on modest trades, as seen in August’s -5.33% 4H drop. Neutral Fear & Greed Index (44/100) suggests no strong directional bias.
What this means:
Low liquidity amplifies both news-driven pumps (e.g., Durov endorsements) and dumps. The 200D EMA at $0.17617 acts as key resistance – a sustained break above could trigger algorithmic buying.
Conclusion
Major’s fate ties to executing within Telegram’s crypto ambitions while managing token supply shocks. The September 3 Puzzle Durov event and Portals rollout are make-or-break catalysts. Can MAJOR leverage Telegram’s scale before competitors replicate its model? Monitor the marketing wallet’s $MAJOR movements and Telegram’s next Web3 moves.