Question 1

Why is TON’s price down today? (09/09/2025)

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
Toncoin fell 0.68% in the past 24h to $3.08, underperforming the broader crypto market (+0.62%). Key drivers include technical weakness near critical support and mixed sentiment around whale activity despite bullish ecosystem developments.

1. **Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)**  
2. **Profit-Taking After Recent Gains**  
3. **Whale Concentration Risks**

## Deep Dive  
### 1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)  
**Overview:** TON broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.14, a key support zone where 1.21M wallets hold 740M TON ([SentoraHQ](https://nulltx.com/)). The MACD histogram turned negative (-0.0065), signaling bearish momentum acceleration.

**What this means:** Technical traders often interpret breaks below clustered support levels as sell signals. With the RSI at 43.05 (neutral but trending downward), there’s room for further downside before oversold conditions emerge.

**What to watch:** A close above $3.14 could invalidate the bearish setup, while a drop below $3.01 (swing low) may trigger algorithmic sell-offs.

### 2. Profit-Taking After 9.8% Weekly Spike  
**Overview:** TON surged 9.8% on September 8 after SEC Chair Paul Atkins endorsed crypto in 401(k) plans ([Weex](https://www.weex.com/)), but gains reversed as traders locked in profits.

**What this means:** Short-term rallies in low-liquidity altcoins often face sell pressure near resistance. TON’s 24h volume ($150M) remains 23% below its 30-day average, amplifying volatility.

### 3. Whale Concentration Risks (Mixed Impact)  
**Overview:** Whales control 65.87% of TON’s supply ([CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/)), creating asymmetric selling risk. On-chain data shows 88% of holders are underwater, raising fears of panic exits if support breaks.

**What this means:** While the TON Foundation’s $400M treasury plan ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/)) aims to stabilize long-term demand, the market is pricing in near-term supply overhangs from large holders.

## Conclusion  
TON’s dip reflects technical triggers and profit-taking, overshadowing bullish developments like Telegram integrations and institutional treasury plans. **Key watch:** Can TON defend the $3.01 swing low, or will whale-driven selling push it toward the 200-day EMA at $3.19? Monitor hourly closes above $3.10 for signs of stabilization.

Question 2

Why is TON’s price up today? (08/09/2025)

Accepted Answer

## TLDR  
Toncoin rose 0.67% in the last 24h to $3.10, slightly underperforming the broader crypto market (+0.73%). The uptick appears driven by ecosystem developments and institutional interest rather than technical strength.

1. **Golden Visa Program Expansion** – New staking incentives for UAE residency applications  
2. **Institutional Treasury Moves** – Verb Tech’s $558M TON allocation signals corporate adoption  
3. **Coinbase Ventures Backing** – Undisclosed TON investment boosts credibility

## Deep Dive  
### 1. Golden Visa Integration (Bullish Impact)  
**Overview:** The TON Foundation expanded its UAE Golden Visa partnership on August 12, allowing applicants to reduce entry costs by 80% through staking TON and paying fees in the token ([CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/post/366817049)).

**What this means:** This creates tangible utility for TON beyond speculative trading, locking up supply for residency seekers. With 151,000+ TON holders, the program could drive both staking demand and new user adoption through Telegram’s 1B+ user base.

**What to watch:** UAE residency application metrics and TON staking rate changes (currently 0.8% APY on Bitvavo).

### 2. Corporate Treasury Shift (Bullish Impact)  
**Overview:** Verb Technology announced a $558M private raise on August 6 to build a TON treasury instead of Bitcoin, marking the first Nasdaq-listed company to prioritize TON ([CobakOfficial](https://x.com/CobakOfficial/status/1953018206194659689)).

**What this means:** The move signals growing institutional confidence in TON’s ecosystem, particularly its integration with Telegram’s payment infrastructure. Corporate treasury allocations typically reduce circulating supply and attract copycat investors.

### 3. Strategic Investor Validation (Mixed Impact)  
**Overview:** Coinbase Ventures confirmed an undisclosed TON position on August 11, joining Sequoia and Benchmark as backers ([TON Blockchain](https://x.com/ton_blockchain/status/1954899899792929054)).

**What this means:** While the investment size remains unknown, Coinbase’s participation strengthens TON’s legitimacy. However, whale wallets still control 67.86% of supply (per July 5 data), creating concentrated sell risk if large holders exit.

## Conclusion  
The 24h gain reflects strategic partnerships increasing TON’s real-world utility and institutional credibility, though technical indicators (RSI 43, MACD bearish crossover) suggest limited momentum. **Key watch:** Whether the $3.09 pivot point holds as support, as a break below $3.01 Fibonacci level could erase recent gains.

Latest Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis

Why is TON’s price down today? (09/09/2025)

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

2. Profit-Taking After 9.8% Weekly Spike

3. Whale Concentration Risks (Mixed Impact)

Conclusion

Why is TON’s price up today? (08/09/2025)

TLDR

Deep Dive

1. Golden Visa Integration (Bullish Impact)

2. Corporate Treasury Shift (Bullish Impact)

3. Strategic Investor Validation (Mixed Impact)

Conclusion

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