Deep Dive
1. Supply Mechanics (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Blum’s monthly token burns (started July 2025) remove coins permanently, while staking offers 50-60% APR via TonRaffles. However, 70% of airdropped tokens vest daily until December 2025, creating sustained sell pressure.
What this means:
Burns could counteract inflation long-term, but immediate price action depends on whether staking demand outpaces vesting sell-offs. With RSI at 28.64 (oversold), weak momentum may persist until vesting completes.
2. Ecosystem Expansion (Bullish Impact)
Overview:
Recent CEX listings (Binance Alpha, KuCoin) and the AEON Pay partnership (20M+ merchants) expand utility. Q3 plans include AI trading bots and multichain support (Blum Blog).
What this means:
Increased accessibility and real-world use cases could drive demand. Trading volume spiked 9.92% post-KuCoin listing (Aug 2025), showing responsiveness to ecosystem news.
3. Leadership Risks (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
Co-founder Vladimir Smerkis’ May 2025 arrest for alleged fraud triggered a 49% 30-day price drop. While he resigned, the case remains unresolved (CoinGape).
What this means:
Regulatory scrutiny and eroded trust may deter institutional interest short-term. The project’s 74.59% 90-day decline suggests lingering reputational damage.
Conclusion
Blum faces a tug-of-war between strong product fundamentals (burn mechanics, Telegram integration) and leadership/vesting overhangs. Watch the Sept 2025 burn volume and vesting completion rate – successful execution here could pivot the -49% monthly trend. Does the team’s tech roadmap outweigh the governance risks?